Feb 17, 2004, 04:37

Now that President Bush and his missus made a royal appearance at a thoroughly proletarian event -- NASCAR in Daytona -- the media are ready to write off Soccer Moms. If 1992 was the year of the woman candidate, then 2004 will surely be remembered as the year of the ultimate gender-bender, voter matchup: Soccer Moms versus NASCAR Dads.

Each party, each special interest claims its group will be this year's key swing vote -- the one to watch, the one to cater to, the one to nab. Out is the "feminization" of American politics so popular in the Clinton era. In is machismo, gritty, blue-collar-ism and love of rifle, God and country.

Out is Democratic reliance on the women's vote -- reliance because women traditionally vote in greater percentages than men. In is the vote of the angry, war-craving, pistol-wavin', anti-abortion white male. The media tell us the women's vote is so ten minutes ago. But maybe not.

First, as some analysts are quick to point out, the NASCAR audience is only 60 percent male. That means some 40 percent of NASCAR fans are women -- a percentage not to be sneered at. NASCAR moms, like their compatriots of the soccer persuasion, tend to be more concerned about quality public school education for their kids and accessible health care. They are more war-averse than their men. The "War President," as he calls himself, may not be as appealing a figure to NASCAR Nannettes as he is to NASCAR Dads.

Yes, yes. I remember. According to exit polls in the 2000 election, President Bush swept 70 percent of the Southern white male vote. It still didn't deliver him a victory in the general election (Sorry boys, but it's true.) The boys on the Supreme Court took care of that.

But let's not forget that traditionally Democratic women voters seem so much more energized this year than in the past. In the recent Georgia primary, for example, women made up 61 percent of those voting. If that isn't evidence of the continued importance of the women's vote in '04, what is? And the gender gap between men who traditionally vote Republican and women who traditionally vote Democratic that had vanished after 9/11, has started dividing male and female voters again, pollsters say huge margins.

Bush did win one small slice of the women's vote in the last election: the married, white women's vote. He lost the single women's vote, both young singles and older, never-married or widowed women, and the minority women's vote. Married, white women are the most affluent of all women. The critical question for this November is will he be able to hang onto this pivotal group?

Some Republic analysts claim the President is so popular among white, blue-collar men -- NASCAR Dads -- he may not need the women's vote to carry him to victory this fall, not white women, not minority women, not affluent, married women. A month ago I was beginning to believe them. Now I'm not so sure. A combination of factors is making him less appealing, even to NASCAR Nannettes.

His self-appellation to Tim Russert as "War President" was an inapt political move if ever there were one. No one would compare W. to FDR with a straight face. The president's apparent fudging on National Guard service hardly increases his appeal. Neither does his mischaracterization of CIA intelligence on WMD in Iraq. The biggest turnoff, however, to NASCAR Nannettes is his governing from the far right as if he had a mandate, when he barely squeaked into office.

As proof the women's vote still matters to him, watch the president moderate his image as November approaches. Remember his last-minute campaign appeal in 2000, "W stands for women?" Expect to see that resurrected in late summer. Watch him woo wistful women by dispatching his wife, mother, female members of Congress and every warm female body he can find out to hit the campaign trail.

Your NASCAR Dad might be able to beat up my Soccer Mom. But watch my Soccer Mom "wup" your NASCAR Dad at the polling booth this fall.


(Bonnie Erbe, host of the PBS program "To the Contrary," writes this column for Scripps Howard News Service. E-mail bonnieerbe@CompuServe.com.)

© Copyright 2004 Capitol Hill Blue