ST. PAUL, Minn. - Entering its final week, the 2004 presidential campaign is coming down to those few voters who can't make up their minds between President Bush and Sen. John Kerry.
They like Bush but don't like his war in Iraq. They like Kerry's domestic agenda, but they don't like him. Most want change, in Iraq or at home. They complain that Bush won't admit mistakes and thus can't change direction, yet worry that Kerry changes too much to be trusted.
History suggests they could break solidly for Kerry, choosing to fire an incumbent they already know and already have rejected, as in 1980. Yet one recent poll suggests they're ready to break for Kerry by a slender 4-3 margin, with nearly a third purely undecided -- hardly a decisive trend.
If they can overcome their fears and objections to one candidate, they could tip the election. If they can't, this final fraction of a polarized electorate could go for a third candidate or stay home.
"The real issue is whether they'll vote. They ultimately may not vote," independent pollster John Zogby said after conducting focus groups for Knight Ridder with dozens of uncommitted voters in five swing states.
Polls suggest that more than 9 out of 10 voters have decided, and they're split almost evenly between Bush and Kerry in key states. That leaves picking the next president to the roughly 6 percent to 7 percent who are uncommitted.
For Bush, most said they like him. They used words such as "strong" and "leader" to describe him. Yet they also called him arrogant and stubborn, and many refused to commit to his re-election because of his decision to wage war in Iraq.
Kerry impressed many with his performance in the three presidential debates; they reacted with words such as "well-spoken" and "polished." Yet they saw him as a career politician with a vague or overreaching agenda he might not be able to carry out.
Zogby said the results suggest Bush faced a higher hurdle among undecideds, but neither candidate had found a way to win a decisive share.
"The undecideds already know the incumbent. If they're undecided, it's because they haven't made up their mind about the challenger," he said. "They're putting their plug into the Kerry outlet and they're not getting any electricity. There's something missing."
